Russ: This is a BusinessMakers WebXtra, a continuation of the radio broadcast of our discussion with Marvin Zonis, global political economist from the University of Chicago. Well, Marvin, I know that in what you are interested in and specialize in, you certainly, uh, have to be tuned into the world of, uh, energy and our energy challenges. Share your perspective on energy for the future with our audience.
Marvin: Well, there's the near future and the distance future, I'll tell you that. And I think that the near future remains a oil-based future. And, as much as I am ambivalent about that, I think that is the reality. Let me just give you the statistics that I like to quote, which is that if you look at the rich countries of the world, France, United States, Great Britain, Australia, what have you. There about 500 to 700 cars for every thousand people in those countries. We love cars. Then we go look at China and India. In China, there are 15 cars per thousand people, instead of 700. And in India, there are 10 cars per thousand people. So imagine what's going to happen. Do you think Chinese people like cars less than we do? Uh-hunh (negative). China's now the world's largest car market. They're buying more cars per year than the Americans are buying. So the point is, what's going to happen to oil demand when the Chinese go from 15 cars per thousand, to 50 per thousand? How about 100 per thousand? Do you know how many thousands there are in China and India?
Russ: Right, sure.
Marvin: So all those cars, for the foreseeable future, are going to burn oil, so there's going to be a huge increase in demand for oil, a huge increase in pollution emissions, CO2, huge increase in the price of oil because we're not finding it now as rapidly as we are beginning to use it. And we're going to see this remain indefinitely because the battery power we don't have yet. The energy generation from nuclear we don't have. So that's it, it's an oil-based economy, let's face it.
Russ: All right, and that's going to have a huge impact on the general economy too, right?
Marvin: It's going to have a huge impact on the general economy because it isn't good for the general economy to see this level of price for oil, as we have seen in the recent run-up when it was $150.
Russ: Right, right, absolutely.
Marvin: Good for Houston.
Russ: Oh yeah, oh yeah, absolutely. And we enjoy having you here. I understand that you came to town to participate in one of the UP Experience events?
Marvin: Indeed, it was an up experience for me. I really enjoyed it. It was a very ambitious and excited crowd, and so it was as fun audience to talk to.
Russ: That's cool. Okay, shifting gears again-and here's a toughie-what do you think is mankind's biggest challenge for the future? And I'll let you define the future.
Marvin: That's a good one. Well, there's obviously massively significant challenges ahead. My own view, what I've been very concerned about, has been the problem of the nuclear proliferation. And as we get into the problem of having more states having more nuclear weapons, my fear is the danger of an accidental nuclear explosion increases dramatically. And so, there are thousands and thousands of nuclear weapons around now, not only in the states that are official nuclear powers. There are the "unofficial" like Israel, and now we see Iran moving in that direction. And my fear is that if Iran were to go nuclear, in terms of weapons, then for example, Turkey would want to have a nuclear weapon. Egypt would want to have a nuclear weapon, and we would increase the dangers of a nuclear war, which would be disastrous for civilization.
Russ: Okay, I think that one certainly fits the category, for sure. But before I let you go, we have aspiring entrepreneurs that tune into The Business Makers show, and I finish almost all of my interviews with this question. I would love to know what advice you would give to a young person that's just of age to get into the business world and wants, wants to go out and innovate and make it happen.
Marvin: I think entrepreneurship is about the most exciting thing there is, because you make something from nothing. And that act of creativity is immensely satisfying and, moreover, it is an immense intellectual challenge. Anybody out there who thinks that business is boring, ought to try it, because you are challenged by so many fascinating intellectually difficult issues. And so I would say to your listeners that this is a great moment to start a business because at it's darkest the economy is, this is the perfect time to not think about going to work for a large corporation. There are so many creative ideas out there. And secondly, I would tell them not to worry about failure, because they're going to fail. Every great entrepreneur fails. Who do they think they are? Right? They're going to fail, and so that's great. Think of what you have learned through the failure. That's the key thing, not that you've lost money or spent time, etcetera, but that you've gotten this great education for your next entrepreneurial venture. And keep at it, and it will work.
Russ: Fantastic. Marvin, I really appreciate you sharing some time with us. We've been talking with Marvin Zonis, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago. And you're listening to The Business Makers show, heard here and online at thebusinesmakers.com.
